TY - JOUR KW - foot-and-mouth disease KW - PICORNA KW - InterSpread Plus KW - Monte Carlo simulation KW - control strategies AU - J Hiesel AU - I Kopacka AU - R Fuchs AU - H Schobesberger AU - P Wagner AU - A Loitsch AU - J Köfer AB - In 2004 and 2009, two foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) real-time simulation exercises, PICORNA 04 and PICORNA 09, took place in Austria. Since considered scenarios of real-time simulation exercises only represent a particular time segment of an epidemic, the epidemiologic assessment of the fictional scenario usually only covers the considered time period. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of different control strategies based on the real-time simulation exercises in the western highlands, as well as in the eastern lowlands of Austria, using modeling techniques. Different possible control scenarios (basis scenario, restrictive measures for milk tanker, vaccination usage, pre-emptive depopulation strategies, combination of both) were translated into a spatial, farm based, state-transition model, using InterSpread Plus. The results showed that the region and farm structure influenced the effectiveness of the control measures. Local Spread was shown to be the most important transmission path. The disease transmission via milk tankers also played a substantial role in the dynamics of the epidemic while airborne spread seemed to be negligible under the assumed conditions. Results were intended to be used to improve contingency planning and to define topics to be practiced in subsequent real-time exercises. BT - Berliner und Münchener Tierärztliche Wochenschrift C1 - {"oldId":99007,"title":"Epidemiological evaluation of different FMD control strategies in two selected regions in Austria","topline":"","teaserText":"Epidemiologische Evaluierung unterschiedlicher MKS-Bek\u00e4mpfungsstrategien in zwei ausgew\u00e4hlten Regionen \u00d6sterreichs","content":"

Summary<\/span>
In 2004 and 2009, two foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) real-time simulation exercises, PICORNA 04 and PICORNA 09, took place in Austria. Since considered scenarios of real-time simulation exercises only represent a particular time segment of an epidemic, the epidemiologic assessment of the fictional scenario usually only covers the considered time period. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of different control strategies based on the real-time simulation exercises in the western highlands, as well as in the eastern lowlands of Austria, using modeling techniques. Different possible control scenarios (basis scenario, restrictive measures for milk tanker, vaccination usage, pre-emptive depopulation strategies, combination of both) were translated into a spatial, farm based, state-transition model, using InterSpread Plus. The results showed that the region and farm structure influenced the effectiveness of the control measures. Local Spread was shown to be the most important transmission path. The disease transmission via milk tankers also played a substantial role in the dynamics of the epidemic while airborne spread seemed to be negligible under the assumed conditions. Results were intended to be used to improve contingency planning and to define topics to be practiced in subsequent real-time exercises.<\/p>

Keywords<\/span>
foot-and-mouth disease, PICORNA, InterSpread Plus, Monte Carlo simulation, control strategies<\/p>

Zusammenfassung<\/span>
In den Jahren 2004 und 2009 fanden in \u00d6sterreich zwei Maul- und Klauenseuche- (MKS)-Echtzeit\u00fcbungen statt. Da Echtzeit\u00fcbungen naturgem\u00e4\u00df nur einen bestimmten zeitlichen Abschnitt einer fiktiven Epidemie abbilden k\u00f6nnen, unterbleibt im Regelfall auch die epidemiologische Absch\u00e4tzung des fiktiven Szenarios \u00fcber die betrachtete Zeitspanne des \u00dcbungsszenarios hinaus. Ziel dieser Studie war es, die Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher MKS-Bek\u00e4mpfungsszenarien in der westlichen Bergregion und im \u00f6stlichen Flachland \u00d6sterreichs basierend auf den Annahmen der durchgef\u00fchrten Echtzeit\u00fcbungen zu evaluieren. M\u00f6gliche unterschiedliche Bek\u00e4mpfungsszenarien (Basisszenario, restriktive Ma\u00dfnahmen f\u00fcr Milchfahrzeuge, Supressionsimpfung, pr\u00e4ventive Keulung und die Kombination der beiden Letztgenannten) wurden unter Verwendung von InterSpread Plus in ein r\u00e4umliches, Betriebs basierendes, state-transition Model \u00fcbersetzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass sowohl die Region als auch die Betriebsstruktur die Effektivit\u00e4t der Bek\u00e4mpfungsma\u00dfnahmen beeinflussen. Die lokale Virusausbreitung erwies sich als der wichtigste \u00dcbertragungsweg. Die Krankheits\u00fcbertragung durch die Milchabholung spielte ebenfalls eine wesentliche Rolle im Zusammenhang mit der Dynamik des Seuchenzuges w\u00e4hrend sich unter den angenommen Bedingungen die Krankheits\u00fcbertragung durch den Wind als vernachl\u00e4ssigbar herausstellte. Es ist beabsichtigt die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit heranzuziehen, um die MKS-Krisenplanung in \u00d6sterreich zu verbessern und neue \u00dcbungsinhalte f\u00fcr die noch folgenden MKS-Echtzeit\u00fcbungen zu definieren.<\/p>

Schl\u00fcsselw\u00f6rter<\/span>
Maul- und Klauenseuche, PICORNA, InterSpread Plus, Monte Carlo Simulation, Bek\u00e4mpfungsszenarien<\/p>","categories":["Tier\u00e4rztliche Wochenschrift","Abostufe BMTW","Fachartikel"],"fromDate":"Nov 11, 2016 11:00:00 PM","oldUrls":["http:\/\/vetline.de\/epidemiological-evaluation-of-different-fmd-control-strategies-in-two-selected-regions-in-austria\/150\/3130\/99007"],"doiLanguage":"englisch","doiProductFormat":"online","doiPublisher":"Schl\u00fctersche Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG","doiSerialWorkTitle":"Berliner und M\u00fcnchener Tier\u00e4rztliche Wochenschrift ","doiDocumentUri":"http:\/\/www.vetline.de\/epidemiological-evaluation-of-different-fmd-control-strategies-in-two-selected-regions-in-austria\/150\/3130\/99007\/","doiSource":"Berliner und M\u00fcnchener Tier\u00e4rztliche Wochenschrift 129, Heft 11\/12 (2016), Seiten 484\u2013494","doiissn":"0005-9366","doiNr":"10.2376\/0005-9366-15098","doiFirstPage":"484","doiLastPage":"494","doiTransmitted":true,"doiAuthor":"Hiesel J, Kopacka I, Fuchs R, Schobesberger H, Wagner P, Loitsch A, K\u00f6fer J","pdf":{"path":"http:\/\/data\/BMW_2016_11_12_0484.pdf","title":"BMW_2016_11_12_0484.pdf","description":"Epidemiological evaluation of different FMD control strategies in two selected regions in Austria"},"authors":[{"firstName":"J","middleName":"","lastName":"Hiesel"},{"firstName":"I","middleName":"","lastName":"Kopacka"},{"firstName":"R","middleName":"","lastName":"Fuchs"},{"firstName":"H","middleName":"","lastName":"Schobesberger"},{"firstName":"P","middleName":"","lastName":"Wagner"},{"firstName":"A","middleName":"","lastName":"Loitsch"},{"firstName":"J","middleName":"","lastName":"K\u00f6fer"}],"contentOptimised":"

Summary<\/strong>
In 2004 and 2009, two foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) real-time simulation exercises, PICORNA 04 and PICORNA 09, took place in Austria. Since considered scenarios of real-time simulation exercises only represent a particular time segment of an epidemic, the epidemiologic assessment of the fictional scenario usually only covers the considered time period. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of different control strategies based on the real-time simulation exercises in the western highlands, as well as in the eastern lowlands of Austria, using modeling techniques. Different possible control scenarios (basis scenario, restrictive measures for milk tanker, vaccination usage, pre-emptive depopulation strategies, combination of both) were translated into a spatial, farm based, state-transition model, using InterSpread Plus. The results showed that the region and farm structure influenced the effectiveness of the control measures. Local Spread was shown to be the most important transmission path. The disease transmission via milk tankers also played a substantial role in the dynamics of the epidemic while airborne spread seemed to be negligible under the assumed conditions. Results were intended to be used to improve contingency planning and to define topics to be practiced in subsequent real-time exercises.<\/p>

Keywords:<\/strong>
foot-and-mouth disease, PICORNA, InterSpread Plus, Monte Carlo simulation, control strategies<\/p>

Zusammenfassung<\/strong>
In den Jahren 2004 und 2009 fanden in \u00d6sterreich zwei Maul- und Klauenseuche- (MKS)-Echtzeit\u00fcbungen statt. Da Echtzeit\u00fcbungen naturgem\u00e4\u00df nur einen bestimmten zeitlichen Abschnitt einer fiktiven Epidemie abbilden k\u00f6nnen, unterbleibt im Regelfall auch die epidemiologische Absch\u00e4tzung des fiktiven Szenarios \u00fcber die betrachtete Zeitspanne des \u00dcbungsszenarios hinaus. Ziel dieser Studie war es, die Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher MKS-Bek\u00e4mpfungsszenarien in der westlichen Bergregion und im \u00f6stlichen Flachland \u00d6sterreichs basierend auf den Annahmen der durchgef\u00fchrten Echtzeit\u00fcbungen zu evaluieren. M\u00f6gliche unterschiedliche Bek\u00e4mpfungsszenarien (Basisszenario, restriktive Ma\u00dfnahmen f\u00fcr Milchfahrzeuge, Supressionsimpfung, pr\u00e4ventive Keulung und die Kombination der beiden Letztgenannten) wurden unter Verwendung von InterSpread Plus in ein r\u00e4umliches, Betriebs basierendes, state-transition Model \u00fcbersetzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass sowohl die Region als auch die Betriebsstruktur die Effektivit\u00e4t der Bek\u00e4mpfungsma\u00dfnahmen beeinflussen. Die lokale Virusausbreitung erwies sich als der wichtigste \u00dcbertragungsweg. Die Krankheits\u00fcbertragung durch die Milchabholung spielte ebenfalls eine wesentliche Rolle im Zusammenhang mit der Dynamik des Seuchenzuges w\u00e4hrend sich unter den angenommen Bedingungen die Krankheits\u00fcbertragung durch den Wind als vernachl\u00e4ssigbar herausstellte. Es ist beabsichtigt die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit heranzuziehen, um die MKS-Krisenplanung in \u00d6sterreich zu verbessern und neue \u00dcbungsinhalte f\u00fcr die noch folgenden MKS-Echtzeit\u00fcbungen zu definieren.<\/p>

Schl\u00fcsselw\u00f6rter:<\/strong>
Maul- und Klauenseuche, PICORNA, InterSpread Plus, Monte Carlo Simulation, Bek\u00e4mpfungsszenarien<\/p>","primaryLanguage":"englisch","summary":"In 2004 and 2009, two foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) real-time simulation exercises, PICORNA 04 and PICORNA 09, took place in Austria. Since considered scenarios of real-time simulation exercises only represent a particular time segment of an epidemic, the epidemiologic assessment of the fictional scenario usually only covers the considered time period. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of different control strategies based on the real-time simulation exercises in the western highlands, as well as in the eastern lowlands of Austria, using modeling techniques. Different possible control scenarios (basis scenario, restrictive measures for milk tanker, vaccination usage, pre-emptive depopulation strategies, combination of both) were translated into a spatial, farm based, state-transition model, using InterSpread Plus. The results showed that the region and farm structure influenced the effectiveness of the control measures. Local Spread was shown to be the most important transmission path. The disease transmission via milk tankers also played a substantial role in the dynamics of the epidemic while airborne spread seemed to be negligible under the assumed conditions. Results were intended to be used to improve contingency planning and to define topics to be practiced in subsequent real-time exercises.<\/p>

","keywords":["foot-and-mouth disease","PICORNA","InterSpread Plus","Monte Carlo simulation","control strategies"],"zusammenfassung":"In den Jahren 2004 und 2009 fanden in \u00d6sterreich zwei Maul- und Klauenseuche- (MKS)-Echtzeit\u00fcbungen statt. Da Echtzeit\u00fcbungen naturgem\u00e4\u00df nur einen bestimmten zeitlichen Abschnitt einer fiktiven Epidemie abbilden k\u00f6nnen, unterbleibt im Regelfall auch die epidemiologische Absch\u00e4tzung des fiktiven Szenarios \u00fcber die betrachtete Zeitspanne des \u00dcbungsszenarios hinaus. Ziel dieser Studie war es, die Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher MKS-Bek\u00e4mpfungsszenarien in der westlichen Bergregion und im \u00f6stlichen Flachland \u00d6sterreichs basierend auf den Annahmen der durchgef\u00fchrten Echtzeit\u00fcbungen zu evaluieren. M\u00f6gliche unterschiedliche Bek\u00e4mpfungsszenarien (Basisszenario, restriktive Ma\u00dfnahmen f\u00fcr Milchfahrzeuge, Supressionsimpfung, pr\u00e4ventive Keulung und die Kombination der beiden Letztgenannten) wurden unter Verwendung von InterSpread Plus in ein r\u00e4umliches, Betriebs basierendes, state-transition Model \u00fcbersetzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass sowohl die Region als auch die Betriebsstruktur die Effektivit\u00e4t der Bek\u00e4mpfungsma\u00dfnahmen beeinflussen. Die lokale Virusausbreitung erwies sich als der wichtigste \u00dcbertragungsweg. Die Krankheits\u00fcbertragung durch die Milchabholung spielte ebenfalls eine wesentliche Rolle im Zusammenhang mit der Dynamik des Seuchenzuges w\u00e4hrend sich unter den angenommen Bedingungen die Krankheits\u00fcbertragung durch den Wind als vernachl\u00e4ssigbar herausstellte. Es ist beabsichtigt die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit heranzuziehen, um die MKS-Krisenplanung in \u00d6sterreich zu verbessern und neue \u00dcbungsinhalte f\u00fcr die noch folgenden MKS-Echtzeit\u00fcbungen zu definieren.<\/p>

","schluesselwoerter":["Maul- und Klauenseuche","PICORNA","InterSpread Plus","Monte Carlo Simulation","Bek\u00e4mpfungsszenarien"],"translatedTitle":"Epidemiologische Evaluierung unterschiedlicher MKS-Bek\u00e4mpfungsstrategien in zwei ausgew\u00e4hlten Regionen \u00d6sterreichs","abstractE":"In 2004 and 2009, two foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) real-time simulation exercises, PICORNA 04 and PICORNA 09, took place in Austria. Since considered scenarios of real-time simulation exercises only represent a particular time segment of an epidemic, the epidemiologic assessment of the fictional scenario usually only covers the considered time period. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of different control strategies based on the real-time simulation exercises in the western highlands, as well as in the eastern lowlands of Austria, using modeling techniques. Different possible control scenarios (basis scenario, restrictive measures for milk tanker, vaccination usage, pre-emptive depopulation strategies, combination of both) were translated into a spatial, farm based, state-transition model, using InterSpread Plus. The results showed that the region and farm structure influenced the effectiveness of the control measures. Local Spread was shown to be the most important transmission path. The disease transmission via milk tankers also played a substantial role in the dynamics of the epidemic while airborne spread seemed to be negligible under the assumed conditions. Results were intended to be used to improve contingency planning and to define topics to be practiced in subsequent real-time exercises.","date":{"year":2016,"date":"11\/2016","accepted":"2016-11-11"},"volume":"129","openAccess":false,"journal":"Berliner und M\u00fcnchener Tier\u00e4rztliche Wochenschrift","titleImageId":944,"pages":"484-494","redirects":["epidemiological-evaluation-of-different-fmd-control-strategies-in-two-selected-regions-in-austria\/150\/3130\/99007"],"tierartCategories":[],"artikelartCategories":["Tier\u00e4rztliche Wochenschrift","Abostufe BMTW","Fachartikel"]} CY - Hannover DA - 11/2016 DO - 10.2376/0005-9366-15098 ET - 11/12 LA - English N2 - In 2004 and 2009, two foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) real-time simulation exercises, PICORNA 04 and PICORNA 09, took place in Austria. Since considered scenarios of real-time simulation exercises only represent a particular time segment of an epidemic, the epidemiologic assessment of the fictional scenario usually only covers the considered time period. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of different control strategies based on the real-time simulation exercises in the western highlands, as well as in the eastern lowlands of Austria, using modeling techniques. Different possible control scenarios (basis scenario, restrictive measures for milk tanker, vaccination usage, pre-emptive depopulation strategies, combination of both) were translated into a spatial, farm based, state-transition model, using InterSpread Plus. The results showed that the region and farm structure influenced the effectiveness of the control measures. Local Spread was shown to be the most important transmission path. The disease transmission via milk tankers also played a substantial role in the dynamics of the epidemic while airborne spread seemed to be negligible under the assumed conditions. Results were intended to be used to improve contingency planning and to define topics to be practiced in subsequent real-time exercises. PB - Schlütersche Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG PP - Hannover PY - 2016 SP - 484 EP - 494 T1 - Epidemiological evaluation of different FMD control strategies in two selected regions in Austria T2 - Berliner und Münchener Tierärztliche Wochenschrift TI - Epidemiological evaluation of different FMD control strategies in two selected regions in Austria TT - Epidemiologische Evaluierung unterschiedlicher MKS-Bekämpfungsstrategien in zwei ausgewählten Regionen Österreichs VL - 129 SN - 0005-9366 ER -